A Practical Way to Estimate One-year Reserve Risk

The advent of Solvency II has sparked interest in methods for estimating one-year reserve risk. This paper provides a discussion of the one-year view of reserve risk and some of the methods that have been proposed for quantifying it. It then presents a new method that uses ultimate reserve risk estimates, payment patterns, and reporting patterns to derive one-year reserve risk values in a systematic fashion. The proposed method is a more refined version of the simplistic approach used in the Standard Formula. Yet, it is also practical and robust: triangles, regressions, or simulations are not required.