Stochastic Modeling of Mortality with Special Focus on Pandemic Risk
Announcement from the European Actuarial Academy organiser: For nearly ten years, the EAA has offered a seminar, entitled “Stochastic Modelling – Theory and Reality from an Actuarial Perspective,” addressing the use of stochastic modelling in actuarial models. In that seminar, participants learn to develop and calibrate stochastic models of mortality. The present web session “Stochastic Modelling of Mortality with Special Focus on Pandemic Risk” introduces and expands upon the stochastic mortality models discussed in the live seminar. The web session will assess the impact COVID-19 has had on population mortality, how COVID-19 fits into the historical context of pandemics, and what adjustments actuaries may wish to consider for their stochastic mortality models based on lessons learned from COVID-19. The web session will also explore certain epidemiological models, including a stochastic component, and how epidemiological models can interact with stochastic mortality models.
Participants who previously attended the EAA Seminar, “Stochastic Modelling – Theory and Reality from an Actuarial Perspective” will benefit from attending this web session. The web session will update models discussed in the live seminar to reflect COVID-19 experience and will expand the model to allow for incorporation of epidemiological models.
The web session is suited for actuaries, actuarial students and other professionals involved and interested in the stochastic modeling of mortality. Participants who previously attended the seminar “Stochastic Modelling – Theory and Reality from an Actuarial Perspective” will benefit from this seminar by learning about updates and expansions of stochastic mortality models to reflect emerging COVID-19 experience. For participants who have not attended the live seminar, we will begin the web session with an introduction to relevant stochastic mortality models.
The goal of the web session is to give participants a comprehensive introduction to stochastic mortality models, epidemiological models, and how the two interact during pandemic times. We will examine in detail a stochastic mortality model based on the textbook “Stochastic Modeling – Theory and Reality from an Actuarial Perspective” (copyright © 2010 International Actuarial Association). After studying the technical specifications of the model, participants will learn to calibrate and apply the model through use of a practical, Excel-based example.
The stochastic mortality model presented in the textbook includes a pandemic component, which is calibrated based on historical pandemic experience. This web session will present updates to the pandemic component to reflect emerging experience in the COVID-19 pandemic. Participants will also learn how COVID-19 compares to various historical pandemics.
Participants will receive an introduction to epidemiological models, including how those models can be used to measure the emerging impact of an ongoing pandemic. The web session will discuss how epidemiological models can be incorporated into stochastic mortality models, including the ability to reflect stochastic uncertainty in an ongoing, emerging pandemic.
Your early-bird registration fee is € 150.00 plus 19% VAT for registrations by 9 February 2021. After this date, the fee will be € 205.00 plus 19% VAT.
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Technical requirements: Please check with your IT department if your firewall and computer settings support web session participation (the programme GotoTraining/GotoWebinar is used for the web session).
- Introduction to stochastic mortality models
- Recalibrating stochastic mortality models to reflect COVID-19 pandemic
- Case Study: Excel-based example of stochastic mortality model
- Epidemiological models – introduction, stochastic variability, and incorporating into stochastic mortality models.
Andrew H. Dalton
Andrew is a Principal and Consulting Actuary in Milliman’s Philadelphia office and a primary author contributing to Life sections of the book “Stochastic Modeling – Theory and Reality from an Actuarial Perspective.” Andrew’s professional experience includes work on actuarial appraisals for mergers and acquisitions, asset and liability analysis, cash flow testing, and economic capital for life and health companies. Andrew is a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries. He holds a Masters Degree in Business Administration, concentrating in Finance and Statistics, from the Leonard N. Stern School of Business of New York University.