Start time: 12.00 pm GMT
End time: 4.00 pm GMT
Announcements from the European Actuarial Academy:
In recent years, predictive modelling has changed important aspects of actuarial practice. Predictive modelling enhances traditional actuarial models with modern statistical tools and analysis. It uses emerging volumes of data to provide important insights into life and health insurance business, including how to identify appropriate risks, manage the risks insurance companies face, and improve the accuracy of actuarial projection models.
Predictive modelling impacts many areas of life and health insurance – from underwriting, to risk identification, to assumption setting and financial modelling. In underwriting, predictive modelling can be used to select the policyholders that meet desired risk profiles and to improve the accuracy of risk classification schemes. For existing blocks of business, predictive modelling allows actuaries to identify key risk factors impacting financial performance, creating opportunities to proactively manage those risk. As a projection tool, actuaries use predictive modelling to identify the key factors impacting actuarial assumptions, and to appropriately fit the assumptions used in financial projection models to historical data, potentially improving the accuracy of actuarial projections.
As actuaries enhance their focus on and knowledge of predictive analytic tools, it is likely that predictive modelling will play an increasingly important role in actuarial practice in the future. This web session is designed to provide actuaries with the technical tools needed to be prepared for the ways in which actuarial practice may evolve in the coming years.
The web session is intended as a technical introduction for actuaries wishing to develop fundamental skills in predictive modelling techniques. It is designed for those who will be directly involved in the construction and analysis of predictive models. The web session presumes no prior knowledge of predictive modelling, but attendees should have a working knowledge of basic statistics, linear regression, and life and health actuarial models.
Attendees are encouraged to bring a laptop computer with Microsoft Excel and R installed. The web session will presume a working knowledge of statistics and linear regression. R will be used only to a limited extent to demonstrate certain concepts and techniques; lack of familiarity with R should not prevent one from attending the session.
The web session will cover a broad range of topics in predictive modeling that are relevant to actuarial practice. The session begins with a review of multivariable linear regression, and relatively quickly transitions to more advanced techniques. Advanced topics include logistic regression, gradient boosting models (GBM), and generalized linear models (GLM).
Case studies will be used throughout the session to demonstrate the concepts in a practical setting. The case studies will focus on applications to life and health insurance.
Your early-bird registration fee is € 200.00 plus 19% VAT for registrations by 6 April 2021. After this date, the fee will be € 270.00 plus 19% VAT.
Technical requirements: Please check with your IT department if your firewall and computer settings support web session participation (the programme GotoTraining/GotoWebinar is used for the web session).
- Review of multivariable regression models
- Variable selection
- Variable transformations
- Theory of logistic regression
- Technical background
- Probit and logit functions
- Examples of predicting claim incidence
- Introduction to Gradient Boosting Models (GBM)
- Technical background
- Application – setting mortality assumptions
- Application – predicting claim incidence
- Introduction to Generalized Linear Models (GLM)
- Binomial, Poisson, Gamma and inverse Gaussian models
- Applications of GLM to Life & Health actuarial assumptions
Andrew H. Dalton
Andrew is a Principal and Consulting Actuary in Milliman’s Philadelphia office. Andrew’s professional experience includes work on actuarial appraisals for mergers and acquisitions, asset and liability analysis, predictive modeling, and economic capital for life and health companies. Andrew is a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries. He holds a Masters Degree in Business Administration, concentrating in Finance and Statistics, from the Leonard N. Stern School of Business of New York University.