EAA Web Session: Lucy is the immediate past chair of the IFoA sustainability board and author of "Biodiversity and Nature related risks for actuaries: An Introduction". Her actuarial work spans traditional life insurance as well as sustainability specific
Announcement from the EAA organiser:
Quantifying Uncertainty in Actuarial Models: An Introduction to Conformal Prediction
As the actuarial landscape becomes increasingly data-driven, traditional statistical methods are evolving, linking point estimates with quantifiable uncertainty. Conformal Prediction is a powerful framework used to evaluate the uncertainty of predictions. It turns point predictions into prediction regions, in this way, when you make a prediction, the output has probabilistic guarantees that it covers the true outcome. In this web session, we will explore the theoretical foundations of Conformal Prediction, its assumptions, methodology, and advantages over traditional approaches. Participants will see how this technique can be a disruptive innovation in risk assessment, pricing, reserving, and forecasting by integrating uncertainty directly into predictions. The session is balanced between theory and hands-on activities, offering real-world examples and code demonstrations in classification, regression, time series, natural language processing (NLP), and computer vision, all applied to challenges in the actuarial field.
The web session aims to equip actuarial professionals with the knowledge and skills behind Conformal Prediction, improving the reliability and interpretability of their predictive models. By the end of the course, participants will understand how to apply conformal methods to various types of data and leverage these techniques to improve decision-making processes in actuarial tasks.
Click here. (Note: timing via that link is in CEST [Central European Summer Time].)
Claudio Giancaterino is a qualified Actuary who works during the day with Intesa Sanpaolo Assicurazioni, an Italian Insurance Company based in Milan. In his free time, he is involved in data science activities. In the past, he was an assistant professor of Insurance Statistics at the Catholic University of Milan. He collaborated with the IAA and IFoA in several working parties and attended several data science competitions. He held workshops and talks at several conferences/meetups. He’s a member of the Astin and the Italian Actuarial Body Association.